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                                                                                  押大小贵宾厅:监控中心工业品指数持续反弹

                                                                                  2019-02-11 06:35

                                                                                  监控中心工业品指数持续反弹

                                                                                  截至2月1日当周CIFI指数各品种涨跌幅

                                                                                  CIFI指数品种    2月1日当周             1月25日当周             近两周涨跌幅%    本月涨跌幅%

                                                                                  涨跌幅%                涨跌幅%                                      

                                                                                  铁矿石          16.39                  1.14                    17.53            5.61

                                                                                  焦煤            6.22                   -2.02                   4.20             1.54

                                                                                  镍              4.85                   0.82                    5.67             1.66

                                                                                  石油沥青        4.14                   5.51                    9.65             3.02

                                                                                  锌              4.04                   0.21                    4.25             0.97

                                                                                  焦炭            3.12                   -0.82                   2.30             2.45

                                                                                  玻璃            2.91                   2.29                    5.20             1.02

                                                                                  白银            2.66                   -1.59                   1.07             0.16

                                                                                  动力煤          2.61                   -2.97                   -0.36            0.48

                                                                                  PTA             2.57                   3.82                    6.39             0.36

                                                                                  锰硅            2.37                   -3.38                   -1.01            -0.27

                                                                                  聚丙烯          1.89                   -1.53                   0.36             0.36

                                                                                  铜              1.88                   -1.00                   0.88             0.37

                                                                                  甲醇            1.32                   0.64                    1.96             0.52

                                                                                  螺纹钢          1.19                   2.12                    3.31             1.27

                                                                                  热轧卷板        1.11                   2.56                    3.67             1.05

                                                                                  LLDPE           0.92                   -0.91                   0.01             -0.06

                                                                                  PVC             0.54                   0.00                    0.54             0.00

                                                                                  截至2月1日当周,中国期货市场监控中心工业品指数(CIFI)收于1060.2,当周最高上冲至1060.54,最低探至1024.09,全周上涨3.23%。当周,在淡水河谷矿难事件持续影响下,铁矿石强势走高,大涨16.39%;黑色系中,焦煤积极跟涨,反弹6.22%;有色金属镍、锌以及石油沥青涨幅也均超4%;天胶则表现疲弱,回调1.64%。

                                                                                  铁矿石期货价格继续上涨,Vale事件对铁矿石供给影响超出市场预期,若无其他矿山增产,则全球供给最多将减少4000万吨,铁矿石供需平衡发生变化,价格中枢上移。现货市场受此影响,贸易商对后市预期乐观,钢厂在节前补库后,对当前价格接受程度一般。铁矿石价格大涨后,钢材利润受到压缩,若需求不佳现货价格走低,则钢矿之间也将产生博弈。节后铁矿石能否继续走强的关键将从预期转变为实际情况,即钢材需求和铁矿石到港量。

                                                                                  焦企开工略有增加,整体开工水平较高,企业发运较为积极,库存水平维持低位,价格平稳运行。下游钢厂补库情况较好,近期多按需采购,对焦价上涨抵触情绪强。市场看稳情绪浓厚,对节后市场相对乐观,焦煤价格基本持稳,焦企焦煤库存多处于中高位,基本补库完毕,春节前后多消耗厂内库存为主。(方正中期期货 夏聪聪)